On Wednesday, September 26th, Hurricane Ian made landfall in Southwest Florida just shy of a Category 5 Hurricane, 

making it one of the top 5 strongest storms to touch down in Florida. 

We are sending out prayers to our fellow Floridians affected by the impact. 

And we are especially grateful for our first responders who are ensuring our safety.

It will be a long road of recovery for SWFL, but we are a resilient community full of brave and caring individuals, which is what makes living here so special. 

It is important to keep in mind that everyone handles trauma differently. 

And it could take months, and in some cases, more than a year to recover—rebuilding physically and emotionally is a journey.

What the Future of Our Local Housing Market Might Look Like

These days, it’s hard to find a place in the US that is free from risk. Climate change is contributing to more severe weather events across the country, from wildfires in California to extreme heat in Texas and tornadoes across the Midwest. Florida is just the most recent place to get hit. Floridians attempting to rebuild from the hurricane will confront rising insurance premiums, construction costs, and interest rates — along with flood losses that many were not insured against. The hardest hit will be residents on fixed incomes and working poor families who make up the backbone of Florida’s economy, affordable housing advocates said.

Although there is no crystal ball, we wanted to take a moment and share some data from similar situations to see what we might have in store for the future of our local market.

We know from experience with Katrina, (see chart) that housing markets respond to supply shocks with fast-rising prices that can be followed by swift downward corrections. The expected magnitude of property loss due to Ian will be proportionally less than what New Orleans experienced with Katrina. The strength of the overall SW Florida economy and the fact that before the storm it was one of the strongest homebuilding markets in the country bode well for the housing stock recovery. 

“In the second quarter of 2022, Florida posted one of the highest home equity gains in the U.S., with an average of $100,000 in equity per homeowner,” said Selma Hepp, interim leader of the Office of the Chief Economist, CoreLogic. “Florida also had the highest home price gains in July. Gains in equity and record declines in loan-to-value ratios will provide many Florida homeowners with a financial buffer in case economic conditions worsen, as is typically the case following natural catastrophes. Nonetheless, the SW Florida real estate market should expect increased price volatility in the coming weeks and months. 

If you are renting or buying, expect to be a bit more urgent in making decisions.  While many that are now homeless and renters will look to Sarasota, Tampa Bay, and Naples, an already low inventory market will not be able to absorb the excess demand.  Snowbirds are coming in a few weeks, and we are only 90 days from seasonal renters. If you are considering buying or renting, I urge you to consider moving up your plans because the increase in the supply of “must renters” and “must buyers” will increase the demand side as they have to make decisions as there are not many choices of where to go.

For the people that were “under contract” to buy a home when the storm came in, or the people that just closed on their new property a month before. These are all unique situations and if you are one that has found yourself in something like this, we are happy to lend our expertise.

From all of us at Team Pepka | Keller Williams On The Water…

Our continued thoughts and prayers go out to all the families that have been affected by Hurricane Ian. Please reach out if there is anything that we can help with! ♥